@Agh could you also please resolve this one?

@Agh thanks!

Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-wisconsin-in-the-202

Why did Manifold create the same market twice?

https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-wisconsin-in-the-202

@HillaryClinton They wanted a binary market (with Trump in title) after Kennedy dropped out.

This was all due to @diadematus (Captain Jack Sparrow)

This seems to be why:

https://manifold.markets/jim/trump-to-pass-harris?r=V2VzUmVpc2Vu

Did something happen that caused this to market to go from ~63% confidence in the dems to 50%? I bid it back up some but I do wonder if I'm making some kind of mistake

@FreshFrier Biden and Trump are even on the latest polls and Trump is ahead +3 if they add Kennedy to the options

@egroj I was under the impression that's how they were polling before then too, and the slide happened around a week after the most recent polls on 538

@FreshFrier I corrected this market after I looked at the polls. I don't understand (other than being hopeful) how if Trump is polling above Biden here and in Michigan, this and the other market are higher for dems. It has been the case that polls actually underestimate Republican chances.

@FreshFrier Manifold was just miscalibrated, probably because Biden and Trump were polling about even in early 2020 and Biden started soaring ahead as the year went on. There are some factors I believe were responsible for that, the main one being the pandemic, and I expect to see a slight trend towards Biden as we go towards November, but nothing on the scale of the shift in 2020.

Surprised by the confidence in here. Wisconsin is one of the states most vulnerable to flipping. I'd say it's not too far behind Georgia and might actually be more vulnerable than Nevada. But if you do want to bet on a Democratic win, you'll get a slightly better price betting NO here:

delete

All states and districts in one market:

More specific version: