Resolves based on the finalized vote count in the 2024 presidential election in the state of Pennsylvania. In 2020 this was 49.45% for Biden, in 2016 it was 46.45% for Clinton, in 2012 it was 52.83% for Obama, and in 2008 it was 56.22% for Obama.

Any Democratic party nominee will be used instead of Biden if he is not the nominee, I'm just presuming he's the nominee. 

You can keep an eye on the current raw polling average

. As of market creation, it's very close.

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