Resolves after the AP calls the race.
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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| 1 | Ṁ39,699 | |
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| 5 | Ṁ3,080 |
Why did Manifold create the same market twice?
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-wisconsin-in-the-202
@HillaryClinton They wanted a binary market (with Trump in title) after Kennedy dropped out.
@FreshFrier Biden and Trump are even on the latest polls and Trump is ahead +3 if they add Kennedy to the options
@egroj I was under the impression that's how they were polling before then too, and the slide happened around a week after the most recent polls on 538
@FreshFrier I corrected this market after I looked at the polls. I don't understand (other than being hopeful) how if Trump is polling above Biden here and in Michigan, this and the other market are higher for dems. It has been the case that polls actually underestimate Republican chances.
@FreshFrier Manifold was just miscalibrated, probably because Biden and Trump were polling about even in early 2020 and Biden started soaring ahead as the year went on. There are some factors I believe were responsible for that, the main one being the pandemic, and I expect to see a slight trend towards Biden as we go towards November, but nothing on the scale of the shift in 2020.
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