One of the next major things I want to do with Manifold Politics is to try to forecast what will be different in worlds where Biden is elected vs worlds where Trump is elected.
We recently added a section to the Manifold Politics page for markets like this:
The markets you see now right now were created by the politics account, but I'd like to feature some markets from users. The politics page has so far been great at driving traffic to markets, so inclusion should get you a lot of trader bonuses.
I'll also be awarding bounties here just for submitting markets:
Minimum 300 mana for your first pair of markets, to cover your creation cost plus a little extra.
Up to 1000 mana per pair of good markets that I'd consider including on the politics page, whether or not I include them.
Up to 5000 mana for really impressive markets that I think make the page a lot better.
I may subsidize and boost the markets you submit as well.
Please try to keep your submissions in the same format as the conditional markets we already have:
Markets should ideally have an end date of "before the 2026 midterms" to be consistent with the other markets. Using "before 2026" can also be acceptable, though that might not be enough time for many things to happen.
Two binary markets, one for Biden win and one for Trump win.
A market N/As if that candidate is not elected.
Markets should have objective resolution criteria.
For any markets which do get featured on on the politics page you should also be okay with letting the Politics account make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.
See also:
1,000