This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.
To measure page hits across competitors, we plan on using Similarweb. Note that as of Dec 2022, we had eclipsed Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi, but Predictit beat us all:
Check-in: we've now surpassed Predictit to take the #1 spot! Not too surprising given that 2023 is an off-year. Still a ways to go before we've exceeded all of them put together
Also, people spend ~twice the amount of time on Manifold compared to other sites:
I was going to say that this looks like if current trends hold, this is on track for an easy yes because PredictIt is shutting down soon... but then they got an injunction. Prediction market on whether they'll shut down by the end of the year:
This market is also basically the same as saying "Will predictit be around for most of 2023" with a small nod to "will metaculus/polymarket/kalshi get big in 2023"
@ussgordoncaptain I also think Predictit got higher than usual traffic leading up to 2022 midterms, and Dec 2023 might be more of an off-cycle between elections? So even if they're around, they might not get as much attention as Manifold.
