Will we get more total visits than PredictIt, Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi COMBINED in Dec 2023?
207
2.1k
2k
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

To measure page hits across competitors, we plan on using Similarweb. Note that as of Dec 2022, we had eclipsed Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi, but Predictit beat us all:

[Update 2023-10-06, by Austin]: This question resolves based on what Similarweb says about the number of visits made in the month of December, not the 3 month period Oct-Dec, despite what the default Similarweb screenshots show.

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sold Ṁ167 YES

@bohaska Bailing out here, I don't see a spike happening soon, at least not one large enough for Manifold to surpass everyone else, and I don't want to risk bankruptcy.

bought Ṁ10 NO at 7%
predicted NO

@bohaska I think that's reasonable. If we're deciding a Time article on Manifold is pretty unlikely, then there's not anything else on the horizon that's likely to do it.

predicted YES

accidental duplicate

predicted YES

November data:

Manifold: 866.3K
PredictIt: 674.7K
Metaculus: 439.1K
Polymarket: 358.7K
Kalshi: 56.5K

Manifold gained 165k visits, but is still not enough for a YES resolution

If manifold.love is included in resolution, then it'll add an additional 166.6K

bought Ṁ50 of YES

For Aug - Oct 2023

Manifold: 4 million

Everyone else: 5 million

There have already been several individual months where Manifold has had more traffic than the rest of the platforms combined as noted below, including Aug 2023.

bought Ṁ200 YES
2 traders bought Ṁ1,900 NO
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

August to October includes the LK-99 and NYT surges, this is not representative.

bought Ṁ100 NO at 12%
predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Right, but I think the point is that any similar surge has a good chance of resolving this question yes, and if there were already multiple examples earlier this year then 16% seems too low.

How's the current Sam Altman surge?

predicted NO

@jack Yes, and I'm certainly gambling on that. But it'd have to be a big one if the average over Aug-Oct didn't quite make it. e.g. I don't think an article in Time Manazine about manifold.love would do it.

predicted NO

@jack Sam Altman surge got us about +1000 MAUs and is mostly over.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I can only see october data but:
"""
predictit: 676.9K visits
metaculus: 400.7K visits
polymarket: 279.6K visits

kalshi: 90K visits
manifold: 701.2K visits
"""

so 1,447.2K visits vs 701.2K visits

What am I missing? Isn't YES way too high?

2 traders bought Ṁ1,300 NO
predicted NO

A lot of markets close at the end of the year, so it's plausible that manifold site visits would go up significantly during that period, so that is something to keep in mind

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@TheBayesian Also possible that predictit visits go down a bunch after election season. But overall I agree, and that isn't enough to make up for it. The wildcard would be a sudden popularity spike on Manifold, which seems more plausible than sudden drops elsewhere (I kinda assume popularity is sudden up / slow down in general). Maybe from Manifold.love.

predicted YES

@EvanDaniel But we now have @Gen in charge of marketing for Manifold! At least thats something.

Better hope that he does the job well.

(this is pure hope, not sober predicting)

2 traders bought Ṁ200 YES
predicted NO

@bohaska Should have had a joint market before the hiring ;)

bought Ṁ177 of YES

Followup check (August 2023 data):

Manifold: 2.5M <https://www.similarweb.com/website/manifold.markets/#overview>

Polymarket: 838.6K <https://www.similarweb.com/website/polymarket.com/#overview>

Metaculus: 427.6K <https://www.similarweb.com/website/metaculus.com/#overview>

Kalshi: 71.6K <https://www.similarweb.com/website/kalshi.com/#overview>

PredictIt: 879.3K <https://www.similarweb.com/website/predictit.org/#overview>
Total non-Manifold: 2.21M

Manifold is on track to actually resolve YES. This is a steal! 🥳

If they'll resolve like in the picture, then that means they'll measure October-December 2023 data for resolution.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@bohaska I interpreted as just December given title

bought Ṁ76 of NO

@bohaska

https://analytics.umami.is/share/ARwUIC9GWLNyowjq/Manifold%20Markets

September was comparable to June in Umami, at ~3.2M pageviews. If you want to extrapolate that to similarweb, September should have been ~3-400k. Polymarket also got a boost in August but Manifold is most likely still trailing PredictIt alone.

bought Ṁ80 of YES

@EliLifland That's also a reasonable way of interpreting the question. I'm not too sure.

predicted YES

@Sailfish Hmm, interesting... Still think this market should be trading a bit higher though, at around 35-45%.

bought Ṁ150 of NO

@bohaska Keep in mind PredictIt will likely continue to go up as primaries get closer. And august was likely high for manifold due to lk-99. See manifold.markets/stats

@bohaska I don't feel too strongly about whether to use "Dec 2023 only" or "Oct-Dec" for the resolution of this market (though we should decide soon...).

I'm leaning towards updating the question title & resolution criteria to say Oct-Dec to reflect the screenshots we've been using, but let me know if anyone would strongly prefer "Dec 2023 only"

predicted NO

@Manifold Please! The ambiguity has me holding back from participating further. :)

predicted NO

@Manifold I think the title and description as they stand can really only mean "views in month of December", but I think Oct-Dec is a more interesting question, and my preference is probably that it be changed. The only issues I can think of:

  1. A superconductor like spike is now broadly three times more likely, switching benefits "Yes" in this case.

  2. Moderate spikes now have less effect, one or multiple semi-popular markets are now eaten by the return to the mean, benefits "No"

  3. December is likely the most active month for Manifold by far, the "New Year's Resolutions" I expect will drive a ton of traffic, perhaps even much more traffic this year since this has by far been the most active year of Manifold and so the most accumulated year-end markets. Maybe greatly benefits "No"?

The first and last I think could be the two greatest sticking points, but overall I feel like it's a wash and I don't expect I would change my position after a switch to an Oct-Dec resolution period.

predicted YES

@bohaska
Graphs for each month
August

July

June

predicted NO

@bohaska FWIW, I think if you cast free trial you can access the sacred texts (data which is not a month old) without needing to pay the usual mana cost.

I mean, I would be stoked if manifold was on some sort of monotonically increasing engagement trend, I just don't think that's actually happening. I'll manalink you (or whoever) Ṁ250 if you post September data from similarweb.

predicted YES

@Sailfish I got these graph when signing up for free trial.

And they only have data up to August

Actually, ignore the above, I found out they have a "last 28 days" option. So here's September.

And here are the detailed numbers:

predicted YES

@bohaska August 2023 for reference:

July:

June:

Graph of all of them:

Of if you prefer line charts:

predicted NO

@Manifold It would be good to decide what the resolution criteria for this will be, now that we are about a week into October. Also noting that I now think I would change my position depending on the range of resolution criteria.

predicted NO

IMO the question description clearly indicates December only. I would only think Oct-Dec makes sense if there was some very strong reason to prefer that - and the fact that the screenshots have been 3-month periods is not a strong reason in my view.

predicted NO

@jack I personally think Oct-Dec would just have been a less noisy way of asking how Manifold will be doing at the end of 2023, I don't think it's really possible to switch the market now that we know there will be a NYT bump at some point in the new resolution period.

predicted YES

@Sailfish Yeah, exactly. We can always create another question though

predicted YES

@jack Seems fine to me. If so, can you edit your question to clarify the range?

predicted YES

I'm not the author.

@jack (Austin here) thanks for weighing in, I've added a clarification on the description.