Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?
7
20
แน185แน104
2026
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves to "yes" if Manifold has more daily active users than Metaculus at some point in 2025.
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Is there a way to see Metaculus's daily active users?
For the record you can see our analytics here: https://manifold.markets/analytics
@ManifoldMarkets The number of predictions can be found here:
https://metaculusextras.com/questions_chart
For total users, apparently they started counting at 100,000 and increment sequentially. Trying different numbers in metaculus.org/accounts/profile/[number] seems to suggest they actually started at 100,011 with this being the first account:
https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100011/
A similar method (just trying numbers) shows that the most recent account is horotat at https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/127411/
This suggests that there are currently 27,400 total accounts.
No idea where to find the total *active* users though. This isn't something that most organisations just display. Could we simply email them?
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