Will Manifold surpass Metaculus in DAUs by 2025?

Basic

Ṁ185

2026

77%

chance

ALL

This market resolves to "yes" if Manifold has more daily active users than Metaculus at some point in 2025.

Get

1,000

and

1.00

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@BTE hi dad

predicts YES

@jojomonsta What's that now?

Creator is inactive. Set close date to end of 2025.

predicts YES

Is there a way to see Metaculus's daily active users? For the record you can see our analytics here: https://manifold.markets/analytics

@ManifoldMarkets The number of predictions can be found here: https://metaculusextras.com/questions_chart For total users, apparently they started counting at 100,000 and increment sequentially. Trying different numbers in metaculus.org/accounts/profile/[number] seems to suggest they actually started at 100,011 with this being the first account: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100011/ A similar method (just trying numbers) shows that the most recent account is horotat at https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/127411/ This suggests that there are currently 27,400 total accounts. No idea where to find the total *active* users though. This isn't something that most organisations just display. Could we simply email them?

And I also no idea how to find the daily active users either. I was so busy answering, I forgot what the question was.

Without a doubt

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