Democrats lose both houses of Congress in 2022
122
122
464
resolved Nov 30
Resolved
NO
#MattYglesias2022 One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard #Politics #Democrats #2022
Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ991
2Ṁ462
3Ṁ163
4Ṁ86
5Ṁ69
Sort by:
predicted NO

Why isn't this resolved?

predicted NO
predicted YES
predicted NO
predicted NO

Given that the Democrat just won Alaska's special House election, 43% seems way too high.

predicted NO

Dropped to 25% on 538.

bought Ṁ64 of NO

@Treldman Actually I just realized that the outcomes are likely not independent and so it doesn't make sense to multiply their individual probabilities together (Rs win house and senate). That being said, 538's model gives the Rs both chambers 33% of the time.

538 currently has this at 28%

sold Ṁ47 of YES
538 puts this at 52%
This market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Allow me to advertise my market where you can arbitrage this and other markets about US 2022 congressional election outcomes https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/balance-of-power-in-us-congress-aft
bought Ṁ39 of YES
Yep, free money
Free money.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Betting the predictit number
bought Ṁ10 of YES
It'll happen. Republicans are leading polling.

More related questions