A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge #FuturePerfect2021
2
Ṁ100Ṁ65resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021
I know, I know, everyone is going to hate me for saying this. And to be clear, I’m not saying we’ll see an outbreak that rises to the level of a pandemic like Covid-19, which reached into pretty much every corner of the planet. But I do think we may see the emergence of a disease that starts in animals, spills over into humans, and causes at least a few dozen deaths.
Why do I think this? As Martha Nelson, who studies viruses at the National Institutes of Health, told us on the Future Perfect podcast, we’re “playing Russian roulette” with animals. Our environmental practices (like cutting down forests and destroying other animal habitats) and our factory farming system (where pigs, chickens, cows, and more are crowded together in unsanitary conditions) make zoonotic outbreaks increasingly likely.
No less than 75 percent of new diseases originate in animals, and they’ve been popping up with alarming frequency in recent years. H5N1 came from birds in 1997. H1N1 came from pigs in 2009. Ebola spread from bats in 2014. There’s also Zika, and West Nile, and several others. I’m afraid we’ll see a new killer zoonotic disease in 2021. I hope I’m wrong. —SS
Jan 2, 12:02pm: Resolved no — https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22812197/predict-2021-trump-biden-covid-germany
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population.
8% chance
In what year will the next pandemic occur that is as bad or worse than COVID?
2044
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
32% chance
Will a Novel Disease Identified by 2025 Cause Over 100 Deaths by End of 2027?
41% chance
Will a deadly disease evolve in outerspace by 2100?
26% chance
Will we get a new biological weapon (like a virus, bacteria or fungi) before 2030
62% chance
In Jan 2027, Catastrophic Pandemics (or similar) will be on 80,000 hours top priority list
81% chance
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
38% chance
Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
30% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
27% chance