Before 2030 infectious agent created by humans at a non-governmental entity kills 5% of human population.
3
70Ṁ131
2030
8%
chance

Before 2030, humans who are part of a non-governmental entity create an infectious agent that kills over 5% of humans.

Criteria:

  1. The humans and their agency have to take credit.

  2. The agency is a private entity that does not control a sovereign state and does not wish to have control of a sovereign state.

  3. Culpability must be independently confirmed.

  4. Casualty figures must come from an agency which has the ability to make a reliable estimate.

  5. If an AGI is involved in the creation of the pathogen, it must not have had the idea to create it. The humans must be the ones who specified the mission.

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