Will we get a new biological weapon (like a virus, bacteria or fungi) before 2030
30
157
1k
2030
60%
chance

Criteria for yes:

  • Used in an attack and killed at least 1 person

  • Compount was unknown before

  • A deliberate attack or accidental release/exposure counts

  • A modified version of a prior/natural vector counts.

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I sure hope not, because such an event could kill millions or even billions.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Unfortunately, humans are involved. I say YES!

bought Ṁ15 of NO

I think:

1) Biology is too complex and too "evolvy" too be targeted on 1 person or group of people

2) There aren't a lot of mad scientists who want to destroy world

So at most there will be secret developments

Would sars-cov2 have counted?

@lukres no, as it was never intended as a weapon or used in an attack

@TheWabiSabi Not that we know, at least

predicts YES

What is the resolution criteria?

predicts YES

@Cytokine let's say:

  • Used in an attack and killed at least 1 person

  • Compount was unknown before

@SjoerdSpendel Does it have to be a deliberate attack or would accidental release/exposure count. And would a modified version of a prior/natural vector count.

predicts YES

@Cytokine both yes. But I needs to a new modified version. So the modification needs to be new.

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