By 2025, we will have made an artificial system that is judged with high likelihood (>80%) to have some sort of conscious experience
15
37
Ṁ340
Dec 31
15%
chance

Should be fairly easy to tell if/when this happens, or at least if there is serious debate around whether it has happened.

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bought Ṁ1 of YES

If this were for 2030, I'd guess about 40% chance. For 2035, about 90% chance. For end of 2024? That's mighty soon. I think I'm at about 2% chance.... My probability goes up significantly in 2025-2026.

Judged by whom?

@IsaacKing Judged by the mainstream AI/ML research + philosophy + neuroscience communities.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@MagnusHambleton "Mainstream" makes this zero chance.

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