In what year will a conscious computer be built?
9
500Ṁ553
2100
September 26, 2047
31%
2025-2031
16%
2032-2038
12%
2039-2045
9%
2046-2052
6%
2053-2059
6%
2060-2066
5%
2067-2073
5%
2074-2080
4%
2081-2087
3%
2088-2094
3%
2095-2099

Background

The idea that a machine might one day have phenomenal consciousness - subjective experience, not just sophisticated Behavior - has moved from philosophy to mainstream research in neuroscience, cognitive science and AI. Yet there is no universally accepted test. For market purposes we therefore anchor the bet to a public declaration by a recognized body of experts.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve to YES if a formal declaration is publicly released by a group of experts, stating that computers should be considered to possess consciousness.

Each of these criteria must be met:

  1. The declaration must be an official, publicly released document by a reputable institution or published in a peer reviewed science journal with impact factor ≥ 5.

  2. The declaration must be signed by at least 10 experts.

  3. Each signatory must hold a PhD from an accredited university and in a relevant field (e.g., neuroscience, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, philosophy of mind).

  4. Each signatory must hold a faculty or research position at an accredited university or major research institution or reputable company.

Fine Print:

If no declaration meeting all criteria is released before Jan 1, 2100 the market resolves to "Not Applicable".

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