By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data. | Manifold

By 2025, GPTs are proven to be able to infer scientific principles from linguistic data.

7

24

Ṁ109

Ṁ150

2025

37%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

A later version of this questions: https://manifold.markets/Mag/by-2024-gpts-are-proven-to-be-able

In the spirit of what Gary Marcus says here:

https://twitter.com/GaryMarcus/status/1640029885040132096?s=20

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Does this count? https://x.com/GillVerd/status/1764901418664882327?s=20

bought Ṁ25 of YES

Probably should've checked this before betting, but the question says "by 2025" while the market resolves on January 1, 2024. Which of these better fits your intentions?

@Finn Apologies, should have been 2025 — I already have a version that ends 2024 https://manifold.markets/Mag/by-2024-gpts-are-proven-to-be-able

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AI questions

Is "gpt2-chatbot" GPT-4's Successor?

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?

Related questions

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

What will be true about GPT-4.5?

What will be true about GPT-5?

Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?

Will there be a OpenAI LLM known as GPT-4.5? by 2033

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Will GPT-4 be integrated into mainstream virtual assistant technologies (Alexa or Siri), by 2025?

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).