Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-3 this decade? (1k subsidy)

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?

Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $1,000 by 2030?

Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?