Who will break 2:00 in the marathon (updated)?
4
328Ṁ880
resolved Apr 30
ResolvedN/A
1.1%
Kelvin Kiptum between 2025 and 2030
10%
Evans Chebet
10%
Sisay Lemma
11%
Alexander Mutiso Munyao
32%
No one by market close
37%Other

Resolves N/A if Kiptum breaks 2:00 by January 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves to the first runner to complete an official marathon race under a time of 2:00:00. If no runner satisfies the criterion by market close, it will resolve to ‘No one by market close.’

The event must be a race sanctioned by an official national or international athletic body (e.g. USATF or World Athletics). The runner may be male or female, the race may be run on roads or trails. Some marathons allow pacers (which would not invalidate the record), but no officially sanctioned marathon allows drafting (e.g. by a motorized vehicle). The sort of event a la Nike’s Breaking 2, where Kipchoge ran just a shy under 2 hours, would not count.

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