Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?
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North and South Korea have a long history of border clashes, many fatal. Several of these clashes have been over South Korea's outlying islands in the Yellow Sea.

One of the most serious incidents happened in Nov 2010, when North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire across the disputed Northern Limit Line, with North Korea bombarding the island of Yeonpyeong. Most recently, in Jan 2024, North Korea fired artillery shells near (but not on) Yeonpyeong.

This question resolves YES if a fatal attack is carried out by North Korea against a South Korean island. Otherwise resolves NO at the end of the decade.

If there are no fatalities, the question does not resolve at that point. For the "attack" to be against an "outlying island," the attack must damage or commence upon the island directly - attacks on naval vessels at sea don't count. The 2010 bombardment of Yeonpyeong is a central example of an event that would count for this question.

Any South Korean island qualifies, though the most relevant islands are those in Ongjin County and Ganghwa County:

Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

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