This market will resolve to YES if at any point during the year 2023, the monetary policy of the FOMC is at 5% of higher point.
Creator policy: I won't bet.
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@MP So basically just shy of the 5% cutoff eh? What's the rationale? Core inflation is still way above their 2% target
@jonsimon Fed funds futures market pricing is for a peak federal funds rate just shy of 5%:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
So this market being just below 50% seems consistent with that.
@chrisjbillington The link you sent is for the upcoming February Fed meeting. This market is asking about all of 2023.
@jonsimon Click on the "probabilities" tab. The page contains information about more future meetings, but it's not possible to link directly to them. Apologies for the confusion.
@chrisjbillington Gotcha. Wow, that really is the expectation huh? That it will hover just shy of 5% and then go down. That would be nice...