"And actually, you know, since we’re probably going to—we’re having real rates that are going to have to be meaningfully positive, and significantly so, for us to get inflation down, that probably means—that certainly means that it will be appropriate to cut rates at such time as inflation is coming down really significantly. And, again, we’re talking about a couple years out, I think." - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

If this prediction of Chair Powell holds true and the FOMC doesn't cut rates until the end of May 2025, this market resolves to NO. Otherwise, it resolves to YES.