"The Russian government is analyzing the proposal made by the Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), for the creation of a group of countries not involved in the War in Ukraine to try to mediate a peaceful way out of the conflict that completes one year in this Friday (24)."
I won't bet here, but I will donate M$1,000 for the person with the largest amount of shares if this market ever resolves to YES.
I consider pivotal if it's generaly considered by the media that Lula charisma and Brazil non-aligment was a key factor for the peace. I'll use my own judgement and the mainstream media.
If the Ukraine War ends without Lula pivotal role, this market resolves to NO. If Lula's role as an world leader ends, this market resolves to NO. By Dec 2028, this market resolves to NO.
If Lula solves the problem sitting in a different role than Brazil's president, this market also resolves to NO.