On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning? | Manifold

On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?

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resolved Jul 21

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

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If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at most 20% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.

If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to YES.

I won't bet.

I will use the market below.

Here's the symmetrical market to the upside.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Derivative Markets

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For arbitrage, this should never be any lower than (1 - /NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n )

"If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to YES."

Just corrected this part that I copied incorrectly from the other market description.

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