On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at least 80% probability of winning?
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Nov 6
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If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at least 80% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.

If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to NO.

I won't bet.

I will use the market below.

Here's the symmetrical market to the downside

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predicts YES

Both conditional markets

Just created a multi-choice market

bought Ṁ65 of YES

A conditional

Symmetrical market to the downside

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