On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at least 80% probability of winning?

24

closes 2024

23%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at least 80% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.

If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to NO.

I won't bet.

I will use the market below.

Here's the symmetrical market to the downside

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9 YES payouts

Ṁ390

Ṁ221

Ṁ121

Ṁ98

Ṁ57

Ṁ29

14 NO payouts

Ṁ281

Ṁ253

Ṁ124

Ṁ39

Ṁ13

Ṁ12

Ṁ12

Ṁ12

Ṁ11

## Related markets

On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?11%

Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?34%

Conditional on Biden not winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?4%

What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?20%

Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish?76%

## Related markets

On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?11%

Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?34%

Conditional on Biden not winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?4%

What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?20%

Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish?76%