On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at least 80% probability of winning?

2024 US Presidential Election Politics Joe Biden 2024 US Election Derivative Markets

Basic

55

Ṁ15k

resolved Jul 21

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at least 80% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.

If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to NO.

I won't bet.

I will use the market below.

Here's the symmetrical market to the downside

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicted YES

Both conditional markets

Just created a multi-choice market

A conditional

Symmetrical market to the downside

Related questions

In what month will Trump's odds of victory on the biggest Manifold market go below 50%?

Using Monday's before the election probabilities, will Manifold probabilities "feel accurate" in retrospective?

+3% 1d33% chance

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-4% 1d17% chance

Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?

Related questions

In what month will Trump's odds of victory on the biggest Manifold market go below 50%?

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Using Monday's before the election probabilities, will Manifold probabilities "feel accurate" in retrospective?

Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

If Biden wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?

Election Derivatives: What will Trump's Manifold odds be the day before the election?