On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at least 80% probability of winning?
24
closes 2024
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at least 80% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.
If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to NO.
I won't bet.
I will use the market below.
Here's the symmetrical market to the downside
Sort by:
9 YES payouts
Ṁ390
Ṁ221
Ṁ121
Ṁ98
Ṁ57
Ṁ29
14 NO payouts
Ṁ281
Ṁ253
Ṁ124
Ṁ39
Ṁ13
Ṁ12
Ṁ12
Ṁ12
Ṁ11
Related markets
On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?11%
Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?34%
Conditional on Biden not winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?4%
What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?20%
Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish?76%
Related markets
On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?11%
Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?34%
Conditional on Biden not winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?4%
What fraction of Manifold users who vote for one of the majority parties in the 2024 election will vote Republican?20%
Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish?76%