
On the Monday before the election, will Manifold think Biden has at most 20% probability of winning?
36
1.5kṀ7289resolved Jul 21
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at most 20% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.
If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to YES.
I won't bet.
I will use the market below.
Here's the symmetrical market to the upside.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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