If in the Monday before the election, Manifold Markets collective wisdom is giving Joseph R. Biden Jr. at most 20% probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election (measured as an average throughout the day), this market will resolve to YES.

If the main market resolves to NO before the election, this market resolves to YES.

I won't bet.

I will use the market below.

Here's the symmetrical market to the upside.