During the course of the 2024 presidential election process, will any significant world flipping event occur?
Basic
23
784
2025
32%
chance

I'll leave the specific definition of this open, but I'll rely on the specialized press (WSJ, NYT, 538, Político, The Economist...) and the sudden changes in probabilities in Manifold (e.g: an even going from being 90% probable to become 5% probable in a matter of hours). I'll consider the importance too, having a high standard, using both the importance the press gives as well the volume and trader count in the affected markets. To be considered world flipping, the event has to affect the course of events rapidly, in a matter of hours to a couple of days. The probability has to be sustainability at a certain level to be considered world flipping. It doesn't necessarily need to be 90 to 10 or vice-versa. The test is that in the important priors to markets listed on Manifold or elsewhere, one would assume something just suddenly went from almost certain to very unlikely or vice-versa.

Derivative markets won't count.

Appointments to the runner mate of the Republican candidate won't be considered world flipping.

The world flipping event must have something to do with the presidential election, the senate and house races don't count.

This market closes on inauguration day.

Here are some examples:

  • Biden has a 85% probability of winning and something happens then has 15%

  • Kamala Harris isn't the running mate in the democratic ballot

  • Someone dies

  • The person that takes oath on January 20th isn't the person who the outlets called the winner

  • There is a significant third party candidate

  • Ron DeSantis comes out as trans

  • America doesn't exist anymore

  • America becomes a monarchy

I won't bet on this market.

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General tip is to make a market about a single event happening or not. Don't make a market that can resolve yes based on thousands of undefined events.

@AaronKreider We did some markets like these in the end of the last year over the entirety of Manifold. I agree with you, but at the same time, I think it's helpful to have a broader measure of tail-events.

Arbitrary market. Bad rules.

Someone dies is a world flipping event?

@NiciusB someone important like Biden, Trump or DeSantis

Trump convicted?

@BTE it depends on how markets and the media react, as also the rate of change. I think we don't have a liquid Trump jail market, but markets like /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres and /BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican already bake significant probabilities of him going incarcerated, because it's the only way to reconcile his wide lead on the polls. Also, I think it's possible that markets will give Trump competitive odds of winning even if he's conviced.

Kamala Harris isn't the running mate in the democratic ballot

And you will in fact resolve YES should this occur?

@Lorxus yes, but under the time constraints. If probabilities move throughout a month, it doesn't count, because it was gradual

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