Will the 2024 US presidential election trigger a constitutional crisis?
50
280
1k
2026
23%
chance

This market will pay out for YES if a major news outlet publishes an article saying that the United States has entered a "constitutional crisis" because of the presidential election.

Further, the election itself has to be the direct cause of the constitutional crisis. The fact that the elected president does something unconstitutional while in office and triggers a constitutional crisis would not be sufficient.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Would this have resolved YES for the 2020 election?

@MattLashofSullivan I guess I’d have to see if any major news outlets said that re 2020 but I assume not.

This market will pay out for YES if a major news outlet publishes an article saying that the United States has entered a "constitutional crisis" because of the presidential election.

Further, the election itself has to be the direct cause of the constitutional crisis. The fact that the elected president does something unconstitutional while in office and triggers a constitutional crisis would not be sufficient.

@ajtalas Please add your clarifications to the Description section above so all traders can see it, even if your comment gets buried under other comments.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can you be more specific about 'triggers' how direct are we talking? Does it have to happen during the election, or does ratifying the results count? What about actions once in office?

"some state authorities send electors not representative of the vote outcome"

"congress refuses to ratify the results"

"Trump is elected, does something unconstitutional and ignores supreme court ruling"

@DavidFWatson I hope the comment I posted answers you're question.

bought Ṁ90 YES

obviously