Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
During a 4 month period, will Lula score a 55%+ approval rating by 2 or more major pooling outlets during his current term?
14
Ṁ130Ṁ1.6k
Jan 2
69%
chance

If during a 120 day period, the mainstream media reports 2 distinct pooling outlets reporting a 55% job approval rating (good/great or similar) for Lula, this market resolves to YES.

AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Futura, Ipec, and Quaest will be considered major.

Brazil
Ancient Markets
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@MP, hi! Could you take another look at this market? It seems the YES condition may already have been met in 2023: Quaest reported 60% approval in August and Ipec 56% in September, well within the 120-day window. Both are explicitly listed as major polling outlets in the rules. This happened more than once in 2023.

https://www.pollingdata.com.br/

Here's a poll aggregatir

Polling Data
Sleek Data - Soluções de Inteligência Competitiva
sold Ṁ25 NO

@MP According to this aggregator, this has already happened, between Aug 14 - Sep 05 2023 (Queast 60% | IPEC 56%)

People are also trading

Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44% chance
By the end of Lula's term in office, will he have a better supporting score in the House than Bolsonaro?
39% chance
Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
44% chance
Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?
94% chance
Brazil 2026 Election: Will Lula get more votes than in 2022 (59,563,912) in any round?
47% chance
Will Lula be impeached?
6% chance
Will Trump's approval rating return to 47%+ before his second term ends?
5% chance
Will Trump's approval rating be above 40% at the end of his second term?
19% chance
Will there be a USA president that ends their term with an average approval of 55% or more in the next 20 years?
59% chance