Lula was just reelected for an unexpected fourth term as President of Brasil. This market resolves YES if he ends his fourth term on January 6th 2031 and vacates office in a normal, democratic process. It resolves to NO if, prior to the constitutional end of his fourth term, Lula permanently leaves office for any reason, including but not limited to:

• Impeachment and removal by the Brazilian National Congress;

• Resignation or voluntary stepping down;

• Death;

• Permanent removal or incapacitation due to illness or medical declaration under the provisions of the Brazilian Constitution;

• Any irregular or unconstitutional interruption of the mandate.

Temporary leaves of absence (such as medical leaves or temporary foreign travel where presidential powers are temporarily delegated to the Vice President) do not trigger a NO resolution, provided Lula resumes office.

Official confirmation of the status of the presidency by the Brazilian Federal Government (Planalto), the National Congress (Congresso Nacional), or the Official Gazette (Diário Oficial da União) will be the primary sources of truth.

Background and Historical Precedents

Dilma won reelection in 2014 and had impeachment proceedings started against her in december 2015. The main juridical argument for impeachment was creative accounting and fiscal rule-breaking. Further back, in 1992, Fernando Collor was impeached due to corruption scandals

As Dilma, Lula will have to deal with a hostile Congress, and a Senate with an outright majority held by right/center-right senators (PL, Novo, Republicanos, PP). The fiscal situation of the country is untenable. Some economists argue that the current fiscal rule can't survive the next year without either massive cuts in spending or rewriting the fiscal rule. To rewrite it, the government would need a Constitutional Amendment, which requires two thirds in both Congress and Senate. The situation, thus, is somewhat similar to the one Dilma was in.

Lula completed 81 years in 2026, making him the oldest living president of Brasil.