By the end of Lula's term in office, will he have a better supporting score in the House than Bolsonaro?
World•Brazil•Bolsonaro
10
29
Ṁ190
2027
47%
chance

Estadão has basômetro, a tool to measure how each representative voted with the administration orientation. For each administration, this was the track record:

  • Lula 1: 77%

  • Lula 2: 79%

  • Dilma 1: 75%

  • Dilma 2: 65%

  • Temer: 76%

  • Bolsonaro: 76%

  • Average: 75%

If Lula has a 77% or better "basômetro" score by the end of his current term, this market solves to YES.

https://arte.estadao.com.br/politica/basometro/index.php

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predicts NO

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predicts NO

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Arb'ed against https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/will-lulas-3rd-term-in-brazil-have

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