Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?
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14
Ṁ1018
2027
42%
chance

Considering the latest account of support in Brazilian Chamber of Deputies according to Estadão's "Basômetro" when presidential term comes to an end - either on January 1st, 2027, as the electoral calendar dictates; or before, if there is an impeachment, resignation etc.

The historical average to be considered is the one stated by the same source when this market was created - i.e., 75%. Resolves as YES if the average congressional support considering the full term is above that, or NO otherwise.

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