By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?

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This market solves to YES if the state called Republic of China, based in the island of Taiwan, has control of territory in mainland China. I'll rely on the facts on the ground. The land has to be in peace for this market to resolve to YES. If by market close they have disputed control or are in the process of taking control, this market resolves to NO.

This market resolves to NO preemptively if the state of the Republic of China ceases to exist for 1 year. I'll rely in the mainstream media outlets.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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As much as mainland China might collapse, it could only be a German kind of unification. It would no longer be called ROC and very likely not based in Taipei.

Historic China technically includes extensions past its current borders, so this is plausible

it'd be sort of amusing if russia gets some of its teritory annexed

Can you define 'Mainland' please?

@JoshuaWilkes it's the territory in continental Asia thar today is both de juris e de facto controlled by the government from Beijing

predicts YES

@MP what if Xinjiang becomes a shithole owned by warlord groups and sporadic "annexations" of the wasteland there

@MarkIngraham if the republic of China has control on Xinjiang, this market would solve to YES. If another state like Kazakhstan controls Xinjiang, this wouldn't affect this market. It must be the state that today is based in Taipei.

@MP my bad, I completely misunderstood

predicts NO

@MP so excluding Kinmen?

@JoshuaWilkes yes

China will collapse but the successor governments will "annex" plenty.

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