Trump is going to get assassinated ?

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if there is a credible assassination attempt against Donald Trump during 2026. An assassination attempt is defined as a direct, deliberate act by an individual or group with the stated or demonstrated intent to kill Trump, involving a weapon or method capable of causing death. The attempt must be reported by major U.S. news outlets and confirmed by law enforcement or federal authorities.

This market resolves NO if no such attempt occurs during 2026.

Background

Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, when he was shot and wounded in his upper right ear by 20-year-old Thomas Crooks at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. On September 15, 2024, while Trump was playing golf at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, the Secret Service identified a man hiding in shrubbery with an AK-style rifle, and a Secret Service agent fired on him, causing him to flee. A jury in Florida found Ryan Routh guilty of attempted assassination in September 2025.

Considerations

The July 2024 attack represented an operational failure for the Secret Service, with breakdowns in communication, technological issues, and human failure among contributing factors. Since Trump appointed a new Secret Service director, the agency has taken steps to ensure such an event cannot be repeated. However, in August 2025, a loaded handgun inadvertently passed through security screening at Trump National Golf Club while Trump was present, though the individual later self-reported the weapon and it never came into close proximity to Trump.