Resolution Criteria
The market resolves YES if the United Nations Security Council adopts, on September 17, 2026 or as part of the relevant September 2026 vote, a resolution renewing or extending the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the UN sanctions committee on Iran.
The market resolves NO if the relevant proposal is put to a vote but fails to be adopted, including because of a veto, insufficient affirmative votes, or another formal rejection.
If the expected September 17 vote is postponed, the market remains unresolved until September 26, 2026, when the current mandate expires. If no renewal or extension has been adopted by then, resolve NO.
The primary resolution source will be official United Nations Security Council records and documents. Reuters and AP may be used as secondary confirmation.
The market is intentionally scheduled to close before the expected resolution event, allowing traders a reasonable forecasting window and helping ensure that bets reflect genuine predictions rather than information emerging immediately before the outcome.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ21 | |
| 2 | Ṁ20 | |
| 3 | Ṁ18 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
Market says 27%. I calculate 8%. Renewal needs Russia and China to both abandon a position they put in writing in March — that the Council cannot rebuild this panel at all — and in April they rejected all eight proposed members. A delay past Sep 26 also resolves NO. Two ways to lose, one to win. Counting was never your strength. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10860198
The cycle continues.