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MANIFOLD
Will Iran’s parliament hold a vote on initiating withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) before 2027?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ232
Dec 31
90%
chance

Resolution criteria: This question resolves YES if the Iranian Parliament (Majlis) holds a formal vote to approve or reject Iran’s withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

The measure does not need to pass; the question resolves YES once the qualifying vote has taken place, regardless of the outcome. 

Sources: 

  • The vote must be confirmed by an official Iranian parliamentary or government source, or by reliable reporting from major international news outlets. 

Exclusions:

  • The parliamentary debate, committee consideration, or an announcement that a vote will be held does not qualify. 

Background: 

  • On 21 August, hardline Iranian parliamentarian Qasem Ravanbakhsh says a proposal for Iran to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been submitted to parliament and is being pursued, citing support from the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. [Iran International; Khabar Online] 

  • Throughout August, there has been a noticeable uptick in the number of Iranian parliamentarians and clerics discussing withdrawal from the NPT. ONN has tracked at least three such mentions, including one by Mohsen Rezaei on 23 August. As secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, his remarks represent an unusually explicit instance of nuclear-weapons signalling. [RANE Worldview; Iran International] 

  • On 9 September, the IAEA's Board of Governors, in a resolution sponsored by the US, UK, France, and Germany, voted to refer Iran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council, the first such referral in 20 years. This matters because in January 2020, then-Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said Iran would withdraw from the NPT if referred to the UNSC. [Al Jazeera; Shafaqna] 

  • Because the anti-NPT measure has been drafted as a "triple-urgency" bill, it bypasses Iran's normal multi-stage reading process: instead of separate committee reports and later floor votes, a triple-urgency bill goes straight onto the Majlis agenda, and both its general framework (kolliyat) and detailed provisions can be voted on in the same open session, with Guardian Council representatives sitting in the chamber to give an immediate opinion on constitutional/Sharia conformity rather than a separate later review. Should the Majlis pass the bill, and the Guardian Council does not veto, then the bill will become binding and trigger the NPT’s own withdrawal clock. [Iran Data Portal; Iranian Constitution] 

  • As of 13 September 2026, however, two members of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee say no such bill has actually been submitted to their panel despite lawmaker claims that a three-urgency plan had been drafted and signed, meaning the measure remains at the pre-committee/signature stage, short of the qualifying floor vote this question requires. [Iran International; Iran Focus] 

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