Resolution Criteria

Each market resolves YES if Keir Starmer remains Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at & before the specified date. Resolution will be determined by checking the official UK government website (gov.uk) or major news sources confirming the current Prime Minister (I doubt verifying this is likely to be an issue). The market resolves NO if Starmer has been replaced as Prime Minister before that date through resignation, removal by his party, or electoral defeat (or anything else, eg abducted by aliens). He must officially not be the prime minister.

Background

Starmer has served as Prime Minister since 2024 and as Leader of the Labour Party since 2020. His net approval rating fell to an average of –46% by November 2025, making him the least popular prime minister since polling began in 1977. A recent Ipsos poll found fewer than half of respondents believed he would still be in office by the end of 2026. (Sheesh the AI has really gone in here)

Considerations

MPs have reportedly viewed underperformance in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections as a likely catalyst for a leadership challenge. There is near-universal agreement that the May 2026 local elections will be the flashpoint of the year, with all indicators pointing to a bad night for Labour. While institutional barriers to toppling a Labour premier are higher than for the Tories, if 2026 fails to see improvement then "unprecedented measures" such as a secret ballot could become more plausible.