
How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?
30
1kṀ29573000
3%
0
43%
1
39%
2
6%
3-4
3%
5-8
5%
>8
AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X. AI achieves its first IMO perfect score in the calendar year Y. This market resolves to Y-X.
In case that some AI is not explicitly tested on IMO, but e.g. it solves a Millennium problem and there is a widespread agreement that it could get IMO perfect score were it tested, this question could be resolved before an explicit IMO test. In case of such a possibly contentious resolution I plan to poll Manifold Moderators and/or experts in the field whether they would agree with that resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
56% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2027?
88% chance
Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
76% chance
Will an AI get gold on this Olympiad by the end of 2025?
Will AI get at least bronze on the International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) before 2026?
91% chance
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2026?
81% chance
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
64% chance
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
86% chance
What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Will an AI win a gold medal on the IOI (competitive programming contest) before 2030?
95% chance