AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X. AI achieves its first IMO perfect score in the calendar year Y. This market resolves to Y-X.
In case that some AI is not explicitly tested on IMO, but e.g. it solves a Millennium problem and there is a widespread agreement that it could get IMO perfect score were it tested, this question could be resolved before an explicit IMO test. In case of such a possibly contentious resolution I plan to poll Manifold Moderators and/or experts in the field whether they would agree with that resolution.
Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 2024 DeepMind AI results: The creator does not plan to count the 2024 DeepMind AI results as a bronze medal (meaning 2024 is not year X), because the AI was not constrained by official competition criteria.
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Claude Opus 5 achieved 42/42 on IMO 2026 with human expert graders corroborating that, so I've resolved this question to 1.
@Chimpy it did not get one in 2024.
https://deepmind.google/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/
This model was not constrained by the rest of the criteria for "getting a medal", merely for "solving the problems"
@JoeandSeth woahh, did you edit your answer from an explanation to malintentio ed advice. I sorta preferred the advice
@Chimpy I added the link after my first comment, yeah, because I was a little unsure after I posted it. More confident now. again, put up a limit order
[edit] - didn't ever edit the 'bet on it' one if that was what you were asking about
@Chimpy Sorry for the lateness of my reply. I'm inclined to judge 2024 as NO for bronze per reasoning analogous to Floris's here. Thus I think this question most likely resolves to 1. Hoping that MathArena publishes their scores for IMO 2026 as I trust their graders more than some that have went viral on Twitter.