How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?
30
1kṀ29573000
3%
0
43%
1
39%
2
6%
3-4
3%
5-8
5%
>8
AI achieves its first International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) at least bronze medal in the calendar year X. AI achieves its first IMO perfect score in the calendar year Y. This market resolves to Y-X.
In case that some AI is not explicitly tested on IMO, but e.g. it solves a Millennium problem and there is a widespread agreement that it could get IMO perfect score were it tested, this question could be resolved before an explicit IMO test. In case of such a possibly contentious resolution I plan to poll Manifold Moderators and/or experts in the field whether they would agree with that resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI publicly accessible before IMO 2025 get the gold medal on it?
12% chance
What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Will an AI win a gold medal on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
44% chance
Will an AI get gold at the IMO? (no time restrain)
76% chance
Conditional on AI getting at least bronze on the IMO, will it get gold by 2025?
69% chance
How many years between an AI scoring bronze on an IMO and an AI solving half of a Miklós Schweitzer exam?
3
Will AI get at least bronze on the IMO by end of 2025?
74% chance
AI IMO 2025: How many AI labs announce a Gold performance at the IMO in 2025?
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
11% chance
Will AI get BOTH gold and either bronze or silver on the IMO by end of 2025?
52% chance