In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
Will there have been a noticeable sector-wide economic effect from a new AI technology by the end of 2023?
In a year, will I think that risk of AI apocalypse is between 1 and 10%?
Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2029?
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2023?
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before 2024?
Will a NZ parliamentary party release an artificial intelligence policy prior to the 2023 election?
Will AI replace over 50 million jobs by end of 2024?
I get down
49. Will AI win a programming competition in 2023?
Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?
Will I use an x.ai product during 2023?
Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before March 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M subsidy added]
Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?