Why does this expire at EoY? This should expire at most a week after IMO happens.

@pietrokc a lot more than a week bc labs often wait before announcing a result

@Bayesian In 2025 they announced results 3-5 days after the second exam day.

Like, they're supposed to have the model ready before IMO to make sure it wasn't trained on the same questions. Then the AI is supposed to not take any longer than 9h total to solve all the problems.

So there really isn't any reason to wait, like, two weeks for results. Waiting that long is just begging for dataset contamination and/or human assistance, pass@1000, etc.

@pietrokc i’m not this paranoid about dataset contamination, so trade accordingly. there are reasons to take that long, like following the IMO committee’s request to delay announcements to not take the spotlight from the huma contestants, grading taking some time, making an official looking announcement taking some time, and even sometimes strategic considerations around deciding to make your announcement after a competitor to take the spotlight from them. Other reasons exist and for this reason I’m giving labs the opportunity to announce their result later than 2 weeks after the competition

@Bayesian It's your market, but all these delay concerns were demonstrably false in 2025.

I don't think it's paranoid to realize that there are several hundred billion dollars on offer from VCs for whoever (appears to) make substantial progress in AI, and that this can override a lot of naive honesty expectations.

@pietrokc we disagree

If this happens, then narrow AGI in the field of mathematics has been achieved.

let’s operationalize that and bet on it!

@Vesperstelo hey thanks for the 9000 mana of liquidity!!!

@Vesperstelo If you mean that models acing IMO can do anything a human can do in mathematics, that is extremely not true.

@Vesperstelo What is "narrow AGI" supposed to be?

lmao yea narrow is the opposite of general

@RyanGreenblatt limit order up 🥰

@jim Hmm, I think I'm too much of a coward and I update too much on people strongly betting this up against me. Not sure though...