Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
60
10kṀ15k
2026
70%
chance

same settings as this, but for a perfect score, not gold, and for the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026, not 2025.

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If this happens, then narrow AGI in the field of mathematics has been achieved.

let’s operationalize that and bet on it!

@Vesperstelo hey thanks for the 9000 mana of liquidity!!!

opened a Ṁ6,250 YES at 71% order

@RyanGreenblatt limit order up 🥰

bought Ṁ50 NO

@jim Hmm, I think I'm too much of a coward and I update too much on people strongly betting this up against me. Not sure though...

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How many perfect scores will there be at IMO 2026?
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
3% chance
Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
61% chance
An AI model published prior to the 2025 IMO achieves gold medal performance
6% chance
How many points above the gold cutoff will the best 2026 IMO AI get?
Will the AIMO (Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad) Grand Prize be won before 2026?
17% chance
When will an open-sourced AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
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How many years between an AI scoring bronze on an IMO and an AI solving half of a Miklós Schweitzer exam?
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