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Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
21
Ṁ1kṀ11k
resolved Feb 2
Resolved
YES

ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc

This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.

(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)

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@mods The creator seems to be inactive. Resolves YES.

filled a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

Resolves yes

bought Ṁ6,189 YES

@Lonis I think this resolves YES. Multiple versions of GPT-5 are above 50%.

Current leaderboard:

I guess you're not counting reasoning models like o1 or o3? Are you also ignoring the compute limit?

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

I assume this resolves YES if it happens in 2024?

Yes!

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