Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
19
1kṀ3984
Dec 31
85%
chance

ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc

This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.

(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)

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