Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?
Plus
18
Ṁ37342025
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc
This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.
(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?
34% chance
LLM Hallucination: Will an LLM score >90% on SimpleQA before 2026?
55% chance
Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?
At EOY 2024, who will have the best LLM?
Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?
67% chance
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?
66% chance
Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2025?
20% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
41% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
58% chance