Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025? | Manifold

Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?

21

1kṀ11k

Dec 31

98.9%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc

This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of general-purpose base models from OpenAI, Anthropic or Deepmind that solve at least 50% of the ARC questions before 2026.

(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?

Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

Sort by:

filled a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order

Resolves yes

bought Ṁ6,189 YES

@Lonis I think this resolves YES. Multiple versions of GPT-5 are above 50%.

Current leaderboard:

I guess you're not counting reasoning models like o1 or o3? Are you also ignoring the compute limit?

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

I assume this resolves YES if it happens in 2024?

Yes!

People are also trading

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?

Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

Related questions

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will an LLM be able to solve the Self-Referential Aptitude Test before 2027?

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

Will LLMs Daydream by EOY 2026?

Will an LLM get at least 70% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

Will an LLM get at least 80% on the 2026 USAMO for less than $2?

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy