Will Twitter beat Tumblr at "97% devaluation speedrun"
47
1kṀ4896
2028
8%
chance

A friend sent me this

You think elon's going to beat Yahoo's Tumblr record for a social media company 97% devaluation speedrun?
Which is to say, do you think he can get its value under 1.3 billion in less than 6 years
Personally I think his chances are very good

Resolves YES iff Twitter's valuation is under $1.3b in today's dollars on or before October 28, 2028

Close date updated to 2028-10-28 11:59 pm

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If Twitter is purchased by another company, does this resolve based on the purchase price?

@MartinRandall Yes, unless there is a large and obvious difference between value and price (eg $1)

How do we settle if it's still private by then?

predictedNO

@MP If there is a credible source for valuation, use some weighted average of those

If not, I suppose we would have to N/A. I think this will likely be quite obvious, though

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