Will Twitter beat Tumblr at "97% devaluation speedrun"
47
1kṀ48962028
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
A friend sent me this
You think elon's going to beat Yahoo's Tumblr record for a social media company 97% devaluation speedrun?
Which is to say, do you think he can get its value under 1.3 billion in less than 6 years
Personally I think his chances are very good
Resolves YES iff Twitter's valuation is under $1.3b in today's dollars on or before October 28, 2028
Close date updated to 2028-10-28 11:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@MP If there is a credible source for valuation, use some weighted average of those
If not, I suppose we would have to N/A. I think this will likely be quite obvious, though
Related questions
Related questions
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2025?
90% chance
Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?
83% chance
Will Tumblr Survive Another 10 Years?
43% chance
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2027?
76% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2025?
68% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?
87% chance
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2026?
81% chance
Will Twitter collapse by the end of 2030?
35% chance
Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2028?
62% chance