I think if it becomes paid as recently announced that'll be a big issue—though it might not happen, and if it ends up being a big issue it might just be rolled back. Still, I think the recent announcement is an update.

Elon Musk on Twitter: "𝕏 monthly users reach new high in 2023 https://t.co/trqLGBEvvA" / X

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-twitter-collapse-by-the-end-of?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

Will Twitter collapse by the end of 2030?

50% chance. Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/when-will-twitter-actually-collapse?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ [link preview]

Do the users need to be humans?

Technically, Twitter is no longer “Twitter”.

@d6e yes but technically this market refers to Twitter, not to "Twitter".

Interesting that people have put a much higher probability on it happening in the next three quarters than in the three after that. I guess that people think that, if it's going to happen, it will happen soon?

Do you have any stats on this currently? From what I looked up, it seems like there has been a decline in DAUs, though nowhere near 50% yet, and seems like it probably peaked around late 2022. But I am not sure what exactly the peak was.

If twitter is taken over by the AI in the apocalypse, does that count as a collapse? /s

@MicahLinnemeier if it's credible that a significant number of the users are no longer human, we'll count that as a decline. of course we humans will need to be around to resolve this market

How would you identify whether one of those declines has taken place?

@samb we will look for official reporting, or, if that's not available, the most credible proxy stats that any independent researcher is able to produce.