When will Twitter actually "collapse"?
183
5.4kṀ26k2027
1.1%
Q3 2023
1.8%
Q4 2023
3%
Q1 2024
1.3%
Q2 2024
0.7%
Q3 2024
1.2%
Q4 2024
3%
2025
2%
2026
85%
Not before 2027
"Collapse" is defined as a decline of 50% of monthly active users or daily active users (whichever happens first) from it's all-time peak. If the site itself has widespread outages for more than two weeks straight, that will also count.
As long as twitter has not collapsed, this market stays open until January 1, 2027. If it hasn't happened by then, this market resolves "Not before 2027"
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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