"Collapse" is defined as a decline of 50% of monthly active users or daily active users (whichever happens first) from it's all-time peak. If the site itself has widespread outages for more than two weeks straight, that will also count.
As long as twitter has not collapsed, this market stays open until January 1, 2027. If it hasn't happened by then, this market resolves "Not before 2027"
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I think if it becomes paid as recently announced that'll be a big issue—though it might not happen, and if it ends up being a big issue it might just be rolled back. Still, I think the recent announcement is an update.
https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-twitter-collapse-by-the-end-of?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ
Interesting that people have put a much higher probability on it happening in the next three quarters than in the three after that. I guess that people think that, if it's going to happen, it will happen soon?
Do you have any stats on this currently? From what I looked up, it seems like there has been a decline in DAUs, though nowhere near 50% yet, and seems like it probably peaked around late 2022. But I am not sure what exactly the peak was.
If twitter is taken over by the AI in the apocalypse, does that count as a collapse? /s
@MicahLinnemeier if it's credible that a significant number of the users are no longer human, we'll count that as a decline. of course we humans will need to be around to resolve this market
@samb we will look for official reporting, or, if that's not available, the most credible proxy stats that any independent researcher is able to produce.
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