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MANIFOLD
Will Tumblr still exist by end of 2027?
27
Ṁ1kṀ4.7k
2028
73%
chance

Part of a series of markets on the survival of Tumblr. Resolves based on my judgement if there's any ambiguity, but I do not expect there to be.

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@wasabipesto Note this comes after a few failed monetization attempts (Tumblr Live, Midjourney/OpenAI data licensing, Post+, Tips), a failed wordpress rewrite/migration, and firing the majority of the Tumblr development staff to put the site in maintenance mode.