Resolve yes if qualified immunity is overturned, or modified such that the merits of the Constitutional violation must be analyzed and ruled upon before qualified immunity can dismiss a case.
May resolve to a probability determined by me if qualified immunity has been modified such that many of the commonly cited problems are dealt with, but is not overturned as a Doctrine.
May resolve to n/a if something unpredictable happens, such as if it is replaced by a doctrine that is substantially similar, but has a different working mechanism
Otherwise resolves to no
Close date updated to 2039-12-31 11:59 pm
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/19/qualified-immunity-is-burning-a-hole-in-the-constitution-00083569 (Not any news update, just an article for background). Some relevant points:
The Supreme Court created qualified immunity out of thin air in 1967
In that first qualified immunity case, Pierson v. Ray, the Court held that the officers were entitled to a “good faith” immunity in civil rights cases.
The first — and arguably most seismic — shift to qualified immunity came in 1982 in a case called Harlow v. Fitzgerald. In Harlow, the Court concluded that officers’ entitlement to qualified immunity should not depend on whether they acted in good faith.
Meaning it hasn't been around that long and it could also be significantly modified or repealed by court or legislature.
