What % of manifold will think this market type is viable?

180Ṁ65

resolved Nov 5

Resolved as

50%

ALL

Resolves to a poll amongst unique commenters, counting only their last votes

Market type in question is this:

Make a pseudonumeric market to track some quantity
Have it, each day, close with 1/x probability
If it closes
- It resolves x days later to the true value at that moment
- A new market in the series is created and linked to

Hopes:

Consistently gives an x day forecast
Multiple values of x gives multiple forecasts
Automatically makes it a series of markets, giving some calibration

Fears:

Might be tameable if you know how randomness is derived

Manifold

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predictedYES

Current votes:

2 YES
2 NO
2 unclear/abstain

This is too confusing to be viable outside of a very niche group

predictedYES

Unless @a or @Yev clarify their response in the next 24h, this will resolve as 100% (2 YES, 0 NO, 3 abstain/ambiguous)

@LivInTheLookingGlass I have changed my mind. I think the fact that you N/A-ed your market is evidence that it is not viable.

predictedYES

Example

predictedYES

Note that this also gives you a way to change the bounds over time. In fact, you could set the bounds such that they always center on the previous market's final answer and be most of the way to an ideal situation

This is kind of confusing but kind of interesting... count this as a vote for neither side.

predictedYES

I am most interested in doing this for unemployment numbers, with one series doing "what will it be at initial release" and another being "what does it get revised to later". I would need a good data source for that, though

I think that the randomness issues I raised can be overcome without too much hassle. I am uncertain about if people will want to trade with this kind of randomness, but feel positively about the concept overall.

When the market closes, it should automatically create a new market with the same x.

@Yev agreed and added

I think it is

What % of manifold will think this market type is viable?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition