Resolves to a poll amongst unique commenters, counting only their last votes

Market type in question is this:

• Make a pseudonumeric market to track some quantity

• Have it, each day, close with 1/x probability

• If it closes

  • It resolves x days later to the true value at that moment

  • A new market in the series is created and linked to

Hopes:

• Consistently gives an x day forecast

• Multiple values of x gives multiple forecasts

• Automatically makes it a series of markets, giving some calibration

Fears:

• Might be tameable if you know how randomness is derived