What % of manifold will think this market type is viable?
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Ṁ65resolved Nov 5
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Resolves to a poll amongst unique commenters, counting only their last votes
Market type in question is this:
Make a pseudonumeric market to track some quantity
Have it, each day, close with 1/x probability
If it closes
It resolves x days later to the true value at that moment
A new market in the series is created and linked to
Hopes:
Consistently gives an x day forecast
Multiple values of x gives multiple forecasts
Automatically makes it a series of markets, giving some calibration
Fears:
Might be tameable if you know how randomness is derived
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@LivInTheLookingGlass I have changed my mind. I think the fact that you N/A-ed your market is evidence that it is not viable.
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