This is an experimental market
Each day, I will roll 1d6+1d10
If it comes up as (5 or 6, 10), then this market closes, and the next one in the series is created
1 month later, this market resolves to the true value according to BLS
Future markets like this will use public randomness, but I don't yet know how to implement that in a way that can't be gamed
Oct 27, 4:13am: What will the US U3 unemployment rate be in ~1 month? [see description] → What will the US U3 unemployment rate be in ~2 months? [see description]
1,000
3.00@Yev Low participation, and I don't actually think the market will work in the way that I intended. This should be my last N/A resolution for a while, I think
@Yev expected close date is always a month away, and it gets evaluated a month later, so at any moment you are making 2 month predictions, I think?
@LivInTheLookingGlass Fascinating. If I am the only trader on the market, then I should bet assuming the market closes now (if it doesn't, I can just update my prediction later). So I would be predicting unemployment rate a month ahead. I'm not sure what happens when you increase the number of traders...
