Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the next ~64 days? [see description]
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280Ṁ795resolved Nov 7
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Every day, shortly after midnight UTC, I'll roll a 64-sided die to get a number from 0 to 63. If I roll a 0, the market resolves. If there was a nuclear weapon detonation (as defined in /jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-d8af7cf07475) between the start of 2022 and that midnight UTC, the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
As long as the market hasn't resolved yet, the expected time until resolution is always 64 days.
Public randomness source: I will look at the last hash before midnight UTC here and take it mod 64.
Edit: starting with Oct 30, I will instead use first hash after midnight UTC instead.
Close date updated to 2022-11-05 10:13 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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