Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for another?

39

Ṁ540Ṁ14k

resolved Aug 29

Resolved

YES

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ510
2		Ṁ133
3		Ṁ82
4		Ṁ16
5		Ṁ11

People are also trading

Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?

Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5?

will i find a partner in the next two years

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Will a marriage last > 5 years if the husband is showing consistent interest in another woman prior to the ceremony?

Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?

Will me and my wife reach our 20 year anniversary?

What will be true of the partner or partners in my next romantic relationship?

Sort by:

predictedYES

Any updates?

predictedYES

@june still together, still living together, still happy. We are engaged, but I think there was a different market about that

Update: we are moving in together vaguely in the next month, depending on bureaucratic nonsense

FYI, I am just using every unique trader bonus on these markets to buy YES

predictedNO

@LivInTheLookingGlass ❤️‍🔥

predictedYES

90% seems too high by base rates - I couldn't find a graph of probability distribution of relationship lengths which would be the most directly useful here, but https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/ has breakup rates per year. Eyeballing it, looks like maybe 50% breakup rate for 2nd year.

However, I suspect the Manifold subpopulation may differ substantially from the US average. And also I am taking into account your bets.

predictedNO

That said, I hope you prove right :)

@jack Totally understand that. I hope I'm right, too

People are also trading

Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?

Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5?

will i find a partner in the next two years

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Will a marriage last > 5 years if the husband is showing consistent interest in another woman prior to the ceremony?

Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?

Will me and my wife reach our 20 year anniversary?

What will be true of the partner or partners in my next romantic relationship?

Related questions

Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?

Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5?

will i find a partner in the next two years

Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?

Will a marriage last > 5 years if the husband is showing consistent interest in another woman prior to the ceremony?

Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?

Will me and my wife reach our 20 year anniversary?

What will be true of the partner or partners in my next romantic relationship?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy