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Any updates?

@june still together, still living together, still happy. We are engaged, but I think there was a different market about that

Update: we are moving in together vaguely in the next month, depending on bureaucratic nonsense

FYI, I am just using every unique trader bonus on these markets to buy YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass ❤️‍🔥

90% seems too high by base rates - I couldn't find a graph of probability distribution of relationship lengths which would be the most directly useful here, but https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/ has breakup rates per year. Eyeballing it, looks like maybe 50% breakup rate for 2nd year.

However, I suspect the Manifold subpopulation may differ substantially from the US average. And also I am taking into account your bets.

That said, I hope you prove right :)

@jack Totally understand that. I hope I'm right, too