Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for another?
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resolved Aug 29
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YES

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predictedYES

Any updates?

predictedYES

@june still together, still living together, still happy. We are engaged, but I think there was a different market about that

Update: we are moving in together vaguely in the next month, depending on bureaucratic nonsense

FYI, I am just using every unique trader bonus on these markets to buy YES

predictedNO

@LivInTheLookingGlass ❤️‍🔥

predictedYES

90% seems too high by base rates - I couldn't find a graph of probability distribution of relationship lengths which would be the most directly useful here, but https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/ has breakup rates per year. Eyeballing it, looks like maybe 50% breakup rate for 2nd year.

However, I suspect the Manifold subpopulation may differ substantially from the US average. And also I am taking into account your bets.

predictedNO

That said, I hope you prove right :)

@jack Totally understand that. I hope I'm right, too

People are also trading

Given I have been with my partner for a year, will we be together for 5?
64% chance
Will my ex partner and I get back together within 3 years?
64% chance
will i find a partner in the next two years
63% chance
Will I have a new serious relationship within the next 5 years?
Will a marriage last > 5 years if the husband is showing consistent interest in another woman prior to the ceremony?
20% chance
Who will represent my longest relationship as of Jan 1, 2030?
Will me and my wife reach our 20 year anniversary?
84% chance
Will my marriage with @RachelWeinberg last 5 years?
93% chance
What will be true of the partner or partners in my next romantic relationship?
how many partners will I acquire before 2026?
3.16
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