MANIFOLD
Conditional on Trump doing the following things, will Trump be impeached in the House and convicted by the Senate?
28
Ṁ2.2kṀ6.3k
2029
62%
Orders nuclear strike on domestic soil
49%
Attempts to dissolve Congress
48%
Orders the assassination of a legislator
45%
Orders the assassination of a judge
31%
Orders military to seize voting machines
30%
Starts a war with Canada
30%
Starts civil war/presides over the start of a civil war
20%
Declares himself President-for-life
16%
Starts a war for Panama
16%
Pardons himself for federal crimes
16%
Explicitly ignores a Supreme Court ruling
11%
Suspends the Constitution
11%
Orders military invasion of Mexico
11%
Signs an executive order (Control)
7%
Orders military to ignore Congress
7%
Attempts to abolish the Supreme Court
2%
Refuses to leave office after term ends
2%
Orders military to arrest political opponents
2%
Suspends all elections indefinitely
2%
Declares martial law nationwide

In the event of ambiguity, I will be the arbiter. Questions resolve N/A if the event doesn’t occur. A resignation preceding an imminent conviction counts as YES for the purposes of the question.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

actually nvm

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy