How many people attending the "End of Covid Mega-Party" would have contracted COVID at or around the party?
7
100
265
resolved Sep 29
100%64%
0
25%
1-2
6%
3-7
3%
8-20
2%
>20

The End of COVID Mega-Party[1] was conceived in the early days of the pandemic and has been 3+ years in the making. Alas, by the time we finally got around to hosting the party (the most recent Saturday), our timing coincided with the alleged start of another covid wave.

We considered cancelling/rescheduling the party again but decided not to.

Over 130 people RSVP'd on Partiful. My best guess is that between 150 and 220 people ended up attending the party (including +1s, +2s, and party crashers).

We took minimal covid precautions (eg asking people to test would've really ruined the vibe of an "end of covid" party). We did have open windows and multiple Honeywell air purifiers running for the majority of the party.

Today, I woke up with a headache and a stuffed nose. I have not yet tested but I plan to do so soon (at the very least, before Manifest).

At the party, multiple people told me they planned to make a Manifold Market on how many people will get covid at the party but declined to do so because it'd be "in poor taste." I'm pretty annoyed since the numbers would've been useful collective intelligence (e.g. at some number I'd want to cancel the party, or take more precautions). So here's me retroactively rectifying other people's mistakes.


I will count anybody who set foot in the party and credibly tested positive between the start of the party and Sept 26 (inclusive). I will close the market on Sept 28 to allow delayed reports to filter in.

[1] https://www.facebook.com/events/231607907885826

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ120
2Ṁ18
3Ṁ6
Sort by:

Believe it or not, nobody has informed me that they've gotten covid at this party!