In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023? | Manifold

In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023?

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41

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2030

6%

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1M

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predicts NO

when Andrew Wakefield was pushing his now-redacted MMR-causes-autism scam, other researchers did a lot of studies on that claim, and they couldn’t replicate Wakefield’s findings.

I don’t think enough has changed since then to make vaccines suddenly cause autism.

How likely does it seem in 2023, @Lily ?

@MaxPayne hmm, maybe 15%, though I might be anchored on the current market price a little

I assume "equally likely", aka "they certainly don't", resolves to NO?

@yep yep

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