In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023? | Manifold

In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023?

Plus

41

Ṁ2687

2030

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Technology

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

predictedNO

when Andrew Wakefield was pushing his now-redacted MMR-causes-autism scam, other researchers did a lot of studies on that claim, and they couldn’t replicate Wakefield’s findings.

I don’t think enough has changed since then to make vaccines suddenly cause autism.

How likely does it seem in 2023, @Lily ?

@MaxPayne hmm, maybe 15%, though I might be anchored on the current market price a little

I assume "equally likely", aka "they certainly don't", resolves to NO?

@yep yep

Related questions

Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?

Will I be diagnosed with autism before 2026?

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

will 2030 be hotter than 2023?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?

Related questions

Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will I be diagnosed with autism before 2026?

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

Will a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?

will 2030 be hotter than 2023?

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules