In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023? | Manifold

In 2030, will it seem more likely that vaccines contribute to autism than it did in 2023?

Politics AI Technology Science

Basic

40

Ṁ2.6k

2030

6%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ600 play money

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predicts NO

when Andrew Wakefield was pushing his now-redacted MMR-causes-autism scam, other researchers did a lot of studies on that claim, and they couldn’t replicate Wakefield’s findings.

I don’t think enough has changed since then to make vaccines suddenly cause autism.

How likely does it seem in 2023, @Lily ?

@MaxPayne hmm, maybe 15%, though I might be anchored on the current market price a little

I assume "equally likely", aka "they certainly don't", resolves to NO?

@yep yep

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Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?

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Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

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-4% 1d48% chance

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

Will I find autism (or rather, allism) to be an ideology during 2023?

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?

Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?

Related questions

Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?

Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?

will 2030 be hotter than 2023?

Will I find autism (or rather, allism) to be an ideology during 2023?

In 2030, will I be under the impression that autistic burnout has been renamed?

Will there be a pandemic which most people agree is worse than COVID by the year 2050?

Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?

Will HIV/AIDS be considered a "curable" disease by the end of 2030?