Related? https://apnews.com/article/autism-kennedy-trump-vaccines-rfk-jr-cdc-b66251888f039c80b15beda23c279d5b

RFK Jr. says HHS will determine the cause of autism by September

Health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services will undertake a “massive testing and research effort” to determine the cause of autism.

Resolves YES if the CDC's findings are [...] anything other than no evidence of a link.

:^)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/03/28/rfk-jr-fda-vaccine-scientist-peter-marks/

In his resignation letter, Marks states that he was willing to hear Kennedy out, but that Kennedy wanted "subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies."

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/health/rfk-jr-autism-vaccines.html

@Marnix Yeah, it really seems like the fix is in and this market is far undervalued.

@nonnihil SURELY David Greier isn't going to be the only person arranging the study. SURELY they will plan the methodology (and hopefully pre-publish) before they look at the data.

I mean if their goal is to convince people, and they genuinely believe that vaccines cause autism, this is what they'd do.
You can conduct a good study that proves something that isn't true, but I'd imagine you'd need most researchers to be true believers for that.

@Shai I think that there are many ways for a study to find some evidence for a false claim, even absent explicit misconduct.

Remember — this only resolves NO if the study is completed, results are published, and then the results show no evidence at all. This question's current price of 0.25 suggests that this is a full 1.6 Shannons more likely than it resolving YES - again, conditioned on the results being published. That is far too high, in my view.

I think the probability that the CDC director finds a way to tacitly or explicitly direct the study stands well over 20%.

@nonnihil I share this position. The odds that they will find convincing evidence of a link are, I expect, quite low — however, I do not strongly believe that the CDC will claim that absolutely no link under any circumstances was found.

Is there a resolution time limit on this bet?

@jyscao No. This resolves when the CDC investigation concludes (or is shelved, cancelled, CDC disbanded, etc)

If there is a CDC left

If I'm not mistaken years ago there was a link, but under extremely rare conditions.

The 1 idiot that took this as God's word and without any scientific background wroye a book that scared the crap out of a generation, leaving a huge gap in vacations.was the onè who married Donnie Walberg (my apologies early onset alzimier is causing, inability to do math, return of extreme dyslexia, inability to spell or remembering)

Pls have your children vacations done and up to date ie: mussels out brake.

As a Canadian gen Z, we all seemed to far very well and I was one of the few who experienced bad reactions, but parents persisted, thank God.